Kevin Drum 🕸

Why did Kamala Harris lose? Everyone knows the answer: Inflation. Refusal to break with an unpopular Biden. Too little appeal to the working class. Too woke. Press was derelict in warning the country about the danger of Trump. Gaza. Supporting biological trans boys in girls' sports. Liz Cheney. Avoiding media interviews for first month. Immigration. ...continue reading "Why Kamala lost: The real answer"

Who were the big winners in yesterday's big Trumptastic stock market rally? Crypto, Tesla, and Wall Street: Coinbase jumped 31%.... Bitcoin topped $76,000, a record high..... Tesla surged 15%.... Bank stocks surged.... Citigroup was up 8.4%, Wells Fargo jumped 13%, Bank of America rose 8.4%, JPMorgan Chase was up 12%, Goldman Sachs gained 13%, and ...continue reading "Wall Street says: The rich are back!"

The stock market is soaring, but not every stock has joined the celebration. DJT is down since Donald Trump won the election: What's going on? Is there just lots of selling pressure as big investors get out while the getting is good? If any stock should have skyrocketed after Trump's win, it's Trump's own stock. ...continue reading "After big Trump win, DJT is . . . down?"

Donald Trump won by appealing to the working class with a bevy of promises. No tax on overtime! Bring back manufacturing! Tariffs on China and Mexico! Deport 20 million illegal immigrants! Slash energy prices! But surprise! Can you guess what his top priority really is? Huh? Can you?

At the moment, I'm not much interested in the million and one liberal narratives floating around online explaining "why she lost"—all with remarkable certitude. Emotions are too raw and people are mostly just relitigating all their old grievances. But when a party suffers a six-point swing against it in every single state, the problem is ...continue reading "The working class rears its electoral head yet again"

Donald Trump might be the luckiest guy in the world. First off, in a single day he (a) was elected president of the United States, (b) escaped all of his criminal prosecutions, and (c) made several billion dollars from his now valuable holdings of Truth Social. He's also accomplished all of his promises: He says ...continue reading "Donald Trump should have the easiest presidency ever"

My mood today:

Here's an interesting YouGov poll I happened to come across this morning. It asks people if, overall, social media is good or bad: It's probably not surprising that young people are far more positive about social media than older people. But I am a little surprised about the big education gap. Is this because of ...continue reading "Raw data: Social media is becoming more accepted"

I guess the good news this morning is that practically overnight the US election system has become reliable and trustworthy. It's amazing the progress we can make in less than a week when we put our minds to it.

Last night I mused about the possibility that the election was really about inflation the whole time and the result has been baked into the cake all along. But that hardly seems possible. Overall inflation has been low for over a year. Food inflation is close to zero. Gasoline prices have been dropping. But there's ...continue reading "Inflation can be more painful than official statistics show"

What a depressing night. Not because a newly unbound Donald Trump will wreak havoc on American democracy. I've never believed that. He remains too ignorant, too vain, and too undisciplined to do that. He'll still do plenty of damage. Like all Republicans, he'll continue to bankrupt the country with tax cuts. He'll have four more ...continue reading "What a depressing night"

It's not over yet, but things are looking grim for Kamala Harris. Was it all down to inflation? Every incumbent party around the world when the post-pandemic inflation began has lost, regardless of ideology and regardless of where inflation was at the moment of the election. — David Dayen (@ddayen) November 6, 2024 Here's what ...continue reading "Was it just inflation all along?"

Amendment 4, the abortion rights initiative in Florida, received 58% of the vote. In Florida! A state so red that Donald Trump is winning by 13 points. That's a remarkable showing. But it takes 60% to win in Florida, so it's going down to defeat. That's depressing. Nonetheless, the pro-life forces should be on notice ...continue reading "Abortion rights in Florida win big, but lose anyway"

If you're jittery and looking for something to do, get up off your butt and go vote. Already voted? Do it again! It's like the All-Star game: you're allowed to vote as often as you want. You just have to show your secret Democratic Party registration card or your Mexican citizenship card. Little known fact. ...continue reading "Vote early and often"

As of 6:50 Eastern time approximately 0.26% of the votes have been counted nationwide and Donald Trump is leading 61.6% to 38.4%. ZOMG! Um, that's in Kentucky and Indiana. I guess maybe we should wait a little longer to assess things?

Here's some more quasi-election related news to while away the hours until polls close. Stock in Donald Trump's scam company behaved very weirdly today: The stock had been trading fairly normally all day and then suddenly plunged nearly six points in the 13 minutes from 2:41 to 2:54 before trading was briefly halted. As I ...continue reading "Trump stock was kind of weird today"

Here's a quasi-election related chart to ponder today: The remarkable thing isn't that fewer and fewer people are checking off the box on tax forms that funds the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. The remarkable thing is that anyone still checks it. But six million of us continue to check the box even though no presidential ...continue reading "The ghost of public campaign funding still haunts us"

Today, for some reason, YouGov retweeted a survey they did a few months ago about the Roman Empire. It turns out that 76% of Americans say they know at least a little about the Roman Empire and 49% have a favorable view of it. But why? YouGov asked the 76% of Rome-knowers what they admired ...continue reading "A third of Americans aren’t sure Roman slaveholding was a bad thing"

This is the rose window at the Votivkirche in Vienna, built by Archduke Ferdinand Maximilian to thank God for saving the life of his brother the emperor after an assassination attempt in 1853. It was completed in 1879. The top photo was taken inside with the organ pipes partially blocking the view. The bottom picture ...continue reading "Lunchtime Photo"

Yes, I know there's an election today. I'm not deliberately ignoring it, but unless something big happens I just won't have anything to offer until the polls close and results start coming in. Until then, the Prime Directive remains in force: the election might or might not be close, but inherent uncertainties in polling mean ...continue reading "Who’s going to win tonight?"